Our gambling guru provides his best prop bets for Super Bowl LV
Super Bowl LV has finally arrived.
Sports betting enthusiasts around the world can rejoice, as the single-biggest gambling event of the year is here.
In one corner, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the timeless Tom Brady. The 43-year-old legendary quarterback is seeking his seventh career Super Bowl championship during his first season with his new team. The Bucs will also be the first team in NFL history to make the Super Bowl in the same year they are hosting the event.
On the other side, the Kansas City Chiefs and superstar quarterback Patrick Mahomes. They are looking to become the first repeat Super Bowl champions since Brady’s New England Patriots did it in 2005. With wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce in tow, they possess the most lethal offensive attack in the NFL.
Kickoff: 6:30 p.m. EST
Spread: Chiefs -3
Total: 56 points
All things considered, this has the makings of a highly entertaining matchup. So what are the best angles we can find from a prop-betting perspective?
I’ll be going over my best prop bets for Super Bowl LV and providing reasoning for all my picks. All listed odds are courtesy of William Hill. As always, please play responsibly.
Tyreek Hill Longest Reception Over 28.5 Yards (-125)
Out of any receiver in the NFL, Tyreek Hill is the guy I am picking to get over 29 yards on a single catch. The dude is just so explosive.
He surpassed 20 mph on 11 touches this season, by far the highest mark in the NFL. Hill also burned the Buccaneers already this season, posting a 75-yard touchdown and 200 receiving yards in the first 15 minutes of their Week 12 game.
The Chiefs love taking shots down field, as they had the second-most explosive passing plays through the regular season. I think Hill clears this prop with ease—and will get quite a few opportunities to do so.
Patrick Mahomes Over 22.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
I am not worried about Mahomes’ turf toe injury. He has had two weeks of rest and said he expects to be at 100% by kickoff. People will probably play the under because of the lingering ailment, but I think the line is a bit too low.
The Chiefs’ offensive line has been decimated by injury, and they will have their hands full against an intimidating Bucs’ defensive front. This leads me to believe that Mahomes will frequently need to improvise and extend plays with his legs.
This is the Super Bowl, so there is no holding back. Mahomes is a warrior and will do what it takes to win. He had 28 rushing yards against the Bucs in their first meeting and had 29 in last year’s Super Bowl.
Look for him to make some plays on the ground in his quest for a repeat.
Chris Godwin Over 5.5 Receptions (-130)
The Buccaneers ran into trouble throwing toward the sidelines during their first meeting with the Chiefs. Seeing as all four of their cornerbacks finished within PFF’s top 50 at the position, that is not much of a surprise.
The Bucs found success with Godwin over the middle, though, specifically in the second half when they started moving the ball. This translated into eight catches on nine targets and 97 yards for Godwin.
I expect they will implement a similar game plan with their slot receiver, funneling passes toward him on intermediate routes.
I am not as keen on his yardage prop, but this bet is even more appealing if you think the Chiefs are going to win the game. Look for Godwin to get involved early and often.
Largest Lead in Game Under 14.5 Points (-110)
This one is simple; it is a three-point spread! The oddsmakers think it is going to be a close matchup, and I agree with them.
A lead of 15 or more has only happened four times in the last 17 Super Bowls. I know the Chiefs jumped out to a 17-0 lead in Week 12, but the Bucs will be better prepared here. I think getting this at -110 is a fantastic value.
Mike Evans First Touchdown Scorer (+1000)
This is my longshot prop. The Chiefs almost always defer when they win the game-opening coin toss, while the Bucs generally take the ball.
This leads me to believe that the Bucs will have the first drive of the game, and if you believe they will score on it, Evans is a worthwhile bet.
He is their top red-zone target and scored the first touchdown in each of his past two games. He also had two touchdowns in the Week 12 matchup. You can also look at Bucs First Team to Visit Opposing Red Zone at -105 as a safer option.
Check out the rest of our Super Bowl content here.